The method of seismic entropy allows us to build a mathematical portrait of the volume of the geological environment – the Seismic System, and, for the first time in world practice, makes it possible to visualize the entire staging process of strong earthquakes.
Out of 32 strong earthquakes
This number includes the retrospectively predicted earthquakes (subject to the law)
6 из 30
The catastrophic earthquake in Port au Prince, HAITI
12 January, 2010, M = 7.2
According to official data, the death toll amounted to 222,570 people, with 311 thousand people injured and 869 gone missing. Material damage was estimated at 5.6 billion euros.
Visualisation of the buildup process of the catastrophic earthquake.
Seismicity in Haiti is caused by the interaction of the Caribbean tectonic plate with the North American.
Information on strong earthquakes since 1700 was used to identify the Haitian SS (M≥7.0).
Three homogeneous seismotectonic zones were identified in the SS Haiti: Septentrional (A), Hispaniola (B) and Enriquillo (C).
The buildup of the earthquake in Port au Prince started since 1953. During the total time duration of T=56 years 7 months within the system, 95% of the time it was not dangerous, 3% of the time was it was alarming, and only 2% of the time it was dangerous. The buildup track of a strong earthquake developed near the instability of the zone C periodically approaching zone A.
The earthquake in Haiti once again showed that the traditional methods of constructing a seismic hazard map, the capital contain significant methodological errors. According to the traditional seismic hazard map of the capital of Haiti Port au Prince was situated in the VI-VII intensity levels area, however during the earthquake it was exposed to the intensity of IX-X levels.
The method of seismic entropy eliminates the shortcomings of traditional methods of seismic hazard assessment allowing to create dynamic maps for both land and ocean floor areas.
The above technology of monitoring and forecasting clearly shows how it is possible to help countries such as Haiti in reducing the seismic risk.
Instability (predicted earthquake location) can migrate within the SS from one fault zone to another, the predicted waiting time of the earthquake can get delayed or expedited and, accordingly, the magnitude of the expected earthquake can change. All of these details are incorporated in the method of monitoring and forecasting.
Monitoring the instability area in the buildup of the Tohoku disaster earthquake, JAPAN
March 11, 2011, M = 9.0
The earthquake and tsunami caused a large number of casualties and destruction. According to official data, the death toll from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan was 15896 people, with 2536 people missing and 6157 injured.
Visualisation of the buildup process of the catastrophic earthquake
According to the accumulated entropy data, this earthquake was the strongest one identified by SS in the world, W=20.586.
Earthquake's buildup began in 1946 and continued for 65 years. During all this time (99.975% of the buildup time), a catastrophic mega-earthquake event was excluded, as the trajectory was developing below the instability zone.
Earthquake monitoring was carried out simultaneously in two SS Japan M≥7.8 and Mega Japan M≥8.4 since the beginning of 2008.
Only on March 9, 2011, after a triggering earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5, the track jumped into an unstable zone and two days later the disaster occurred.
Over the last three years, the danger has been localized NE from Honshu and migrated away from Tokyo, first to the East into the ocean, and then along the NE coast to the North.
If our monitoring CT would have been officially adopted by Japanese seismologists and the government, the Tohoku earthquake would have been predicted at the short term phase two days before the actual earthquake with a probability of Pt=99.975%.
Monitoring and prediction of earthquakes in ON Line mode in 2009-2018
24 earthquakes were successfully predicted (4 of them – in short term, 4* – were inexact in one parameter, 2 forecasts were negative)
2009.04.06 42.40 N 13.32 E H=10 km M=6.2 Italy (L'Aquila) 2009.08.10 34.74 N 138.22 E H=26 km М=6.6 Japan 2010.03.08 38.88 N 39.97 E H=10 km М=6.0 *East Turkey 2010.03.30 13.61 N 92.88 W H=42 km М=6.6 Andaman Islands, India 2010.05.09 03.77 N 96.05 W H=60 km М=7.3 Sumatra, Indonesia 2011.02.20 55.92 N 162.14 E H=10 km M=5.9 *Kamchatka, Russia 2011.03.09 38.42 N 142.84 E H=32 km M=7.5 Japan 2011.03.11 38.32 N 142.37 E H=32 km M=9.0 Japan! (Tohoku) 2011.03.24 20.71 N 99.95 E H=10 km М=7.2 Myanmar 2011.10.23 38.63 N 43.49 E H=20 km М=7.3 Van, East Turkey 2011.10.28 14.46 S 75.99 W H=35 km M=6.9 Peru 2011.12.27 51.84 N 95.85 E H=06 km M=6.7 *Tuva, Russia 2012.11.16 49.30 N 155.49 E H=70 km M=6.6 Kamchatka, Russia 2012.12.10 44.97 N 37.58 E H=10 km М=4.9 Anapa!, Russia 2013.02.28 50.93 N 57.34 E H=52 km М=6.9 Kurile Islands 2013.04.09 28.50 N 51.59 E H=10 km М=6.2 Iran 2013.05.19 52.28 N 160.09 E H=15 km M=6.0 E Kamchatka 2013.05.24 54.92 N 153.30 E H=598 km М=8.2 W Kamchatka! 2013.09.24 27.00 N 65.51 E H=20 km M=7.7 Pakistan, Balochistan 2014.02-03 (-) прогноз - Не опасно М > 5.0 Large Sochi Area (Olympiad) 2014.08.24 38.22 N 122.31 W H=12 km M=6.4 C. California (SW Napa) 2016.04.15 32.78 N 130.73 E H=10 km M=7.0 Japan, Kyushu! 2016.10.30 42.85 N 13.09 E H=10 km M=6.5 C Italy! 2017.11.12 34.89 N 45.94 E H=23 km M=7.3 *Iran-Irak border
6 more were predicted retrospectively as they occurred in the new SS (100%). The 2 double earthquakes were not predicted, 4 alarms of missing the target.