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Cases

Examples of earthquake predictions

The method of seismic entropy allows us to build a mathematical portrait of the volume of the geological environment – the Seismic System, and, for the first time in world practice, makes it possible to visualize the entire staging process of strong earthquakes.

Out of 32 strong earthquakes

This number includes the retrospectively predicted earthquakes (subject to the law)

94%
Predicted
30
19%
Predicted retrospectively
6 of 30
6%
Not predicted
2

12 January, 2010, M = 7.2

Out of 32 strong earthquakes

According to official data, the death toll amounted to 222,570 people, with 311 thousand people injured and 869 gone missing.

Material damage was estimated at 5.6 billion euros.

Visualisation of the buildup process of the catastrophic earthquake.

  1. Seismicity in Haiti is caused by the interaction of the Caribbean tectonic plate with the North American.
  2. Information on strong earthquakes since 1700 was used to identify the Haitian SS (M≥7.0).
  3. Three homogeneous seismotectonic zones were identified in the SS Haiti: Septentrional (A), Hispaniola (B) and Enriquillo (C).
  4. The buildup of the earthquake in Port au Prince started since 1953. During the total time duration of T=56 years 7 months within the system, 95% of the time it was not dangerous, 3% of the time was it was alarming, and only 2% of the time it was dangerous.
  5. The buildup track of a strong earthquake developed near the instability of the zone C periodically approaching zone A.
  6. The earthquake in Haiti once again showed that the traditional methods of constructing a seismic hazard map, the capital contain significant methodological errors.
  7. According to the traditional seismic hazard map of the capital of Haiti Port au Prince was situated in the VI-VII intensity levels area, however during the earthquake it was exposed to the intensity of IX-X levels.
  8. The method of seismic entropy eliminates the shortcomings of traditional methods of seismic hazard assessment allowing to create dynamic maps for both land and ocean floor areas.

The above technology of monitoring and forecasting clearly shows how it is possible to help countries such as Haiti in reducing the seismic risk.

Instability (predicted earthquake location) can migrate within the SS from one fault zone to another, the predicted waiting time of the earthquake can get delayed or expedited and, accordingly, the magnitude of the expected earthquake can change.

All of these details are incorporated in the method of monitoring and forecasting.

March 11, 2011, M = 9.0

Monitoring the instability area in the buildup of the Tohoku disaster earthquake, JAPAN

The earthquake and tsunami caused a large number of casualties and destruction.

According to official data, the death toll from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan was 15896 people, with 2536 people missing and 6157 injured.

Visualisation of the buildup process of the catastrophic earthquake.

  1. According to the accumulated entropy data, this earthquake was the strongest one identified by SS in the world, W=20.586.
  2. Earthquake's buildup began in 1946 and continued for 65 years. During all this time (99.975% of the buildup time), a catastrophic mega-earthquake event was excluded, as the trajectory was developing below the instability zone.
  3. Earthquake monitoring was carried out simultaneously in two SS Japan M≥7.8 and Mega Japan M≥8.4 since the beginning of 2008.
  4. Only on March 9, 2011, after a triggering earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5, the track jumped into an unstable zone and two days later the disaster occurred.
  5. Over the last three years, the danger has been localized NE from Honshu and migrated away from Tokyo, first to the East into the ocean, and then along the NE coast to the North.
  6. If our monitoring CT would have been officially adopted by Japanese seismologists and the government, the Tohoku earthquake would have been predicted at the short term phase two days before the actual earthquake with a probability of Pt=99.975%.

33 Earthquake predicted in 1988-2023

Show full list

  1. The Spitak earthquake (Armenia, 07.12.1988, Мs=7.0):

    Akopian S.Ts., Plate tectonics of Alpine-Himalayan belt and some prognostic criteria. IZV. AN Arm.SSR, the Earth Sciences, v.38, n.6, 1985, pp.39-49 (in Rus.).

  2. Earthquake in the east of Kamchatka (05.12.1997, Ms=8.0):

    Intermediate Report of the project INTAS 94-0232, 1996, (Italy, France, Russia, Armenia), "Short-term Dynamics of Seismicity: New Theoretical Base and Implications to Seismic Risk Reduction", Coordinator Prof. L. Bertocchi, ICTP, Trieste, Italy.

  3. Earthquake in the western of Turkmenia (06.12.2000, Мs=7.5).

    Akopian S.Ts. Report "The isolation of zones and sections of the expected strong earthquakes (Ms≥6.2) and the estimation of the time of their exposure in the limits of Caspian Basin ". Moscow, The funds for center of RGGI "GEON", 80 p., 1997.

  4. Parkfield earthquake in the central California (22.09.2004, Мs=5.6):

    Parkfield earthquake in the central California (22.09.2004, Мs=5.6):

  5. The strong earthquake on the Java (Indonesia) (Yogiakarta, 26.05.2006, Мs=6.2):

    Akopian S.Ts. In the "Preliminary estimation of seismic situation on the objects, insured on the Is. Java (Indonesia)", for the Moscow-re insurance society "Moscow Re", December of 2005.

  6. Seismic activity in the central Iran (province of Kerman) from May to July 2006 (there occurred 14 weak earthquakes with the magnitudes of M=4.0-4.7).

    Protocol of the Russian-Iranian meeting at VNIIGeofizika, Moscow, April 17, 2006. Akopian S.Ts "On monitoring of strong earthquakes in Iran based on seismic entropy and assessment of the current seismic situation."

  1. Erzincan earthquake (Eastern Turkey, 13.03.1992, Мs=6.8):

    Akopian S.Ts. The long term forecast of earthquakes on the platform of ANPP: In the report NSSP "Expert estimation of seismicity on the platform of Armenian nucler power plant"; Chapter 7, The government of the RA, Yerevan, February, 1992.

  2. Earthquake on the North-West of Iran (Gilian, 09.07.1998, Ms=6.2):

    Akopian S.Ts. Report "The isolation of zones and sections of the expected strong earthquakes (Ms≥6.2) and the estimation of the time of their exposure in the limits of Caspian Basin ". Moscow, The funds for center of RGGI "GEON", 80 p., 1997. Letter after signatures of doc. Solodilov L.N., Fedorov D.L., Kondorskaya N.V., July.14, 1998.

  3. Earthquake San-Simeon in the central California (22.12.2003, Мs=6.4):

    Forecast was registered in 02.09.2002 (Moscow, Ministry for natural resources, "Geointer", Prof. Y.A. Popov).

  4. Strong earthquakes in the Central Kuril (30.09.2006, Ms=6.8; 01.10.2006, Ms=6.6:

    Akopian S.Ts. Report of the "Refinement of possible zones and intermediate-term forecast of the time of the strong earthquakes of Kuril-Kamchatka region on basis of seismic entropy", 47 p., Moscow, "Aerokosmos", October, 2005.

  5. Strong earthquake and tsunami on the western and southwestern part of the Java (Indonesia) (17.07, Мs =7.2; 19.07, Мs=6.0 of 2006):

    Akopian S.Ts. In the "Preliminary estimation of seismic situation on the objects, insured on the Is. Java (Indonesia)", for the Moscow-re insurance society "Moscow Re", December of 2005. Letter to the President of Moscow reinsurance society Mr. G.N. Fidel'man, №235 from 02.06.2006 from the general director "Data+" of A.I. Ushakov.

Forecasting of earthquakes in online mode for 2009-2012 on the website www.geoq.ru of the LLC "GeoQuake"

12. In the Central Italy
L'Aquila, 06.04.2009
M=6.2
13. In the Japan, Honshu
Izu Peninsula, 10.08.2009
M=6.6
14. Province of Elazig in the Eastern Turkey
Karakocan, 08.03.2010
M=6.0
15. Andaman Island, India
30.03.2010
M=6.6
16. Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 
2010.05.09
M=7.3
17. Near the East coast of Kamchatka, RF
20.02.2011
M=5.9
18. Japan, Honshu
trigger, 09.03.2011
M=7.5
19. Japan, Honshu, Tohoku
11.03.2011
M=9.0
20. Myanmar
24.03.2011
M=7.2
21. Eastern Turkey
Van, 23.10.2011
M=7.3
22. Near the coast of central Peru
28.10.2011
M=6.9

Quarterly bulletins on earthquake prediction of the Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS for the period from 2011 to 2022 submitted to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.

23. Altay, Tuva, RF
27.12.2011
M=6.7
24. Kuril Island, RF
Onekotan, 17.11.2012
M=6.6
25. West Caucasus, Anapa
10.12.2012
M=4.9
26. South-East of Kamchatka
28.02.2013
M=6.9
27. Northern California
Napa, 24.08.2014
M=6.4
28. Japan, Kumamoto
15.04.2016
M=7.0
29. Central Italy, Norcia
30.10.2016
M=6.5
30. Iran-Iraq border
12.11.2017
M=7.3
31. Central Tibet, China
Yushu, Qinghai, 21.05.2021
M=7.5
32. South-East of Lugu, Taiwan
17-18.09.2022
M=6.7, M=7.3
33. Central Turkey
06.02.2023
M=7.8

6 more were predicted retrospectively as they occurred in the new SS (100%).

The 2 double earthquakes were not predicted, 4 alarms of missing the target.