On January 7, 2025, a powerful 7.1 Mw earthquake struck Nepal. The catastrophic tremors resulted in over 100 fatalities, with destruction impacting China, India, Nepal, and Brunei. The Tibetan Plateau is a seismically active zone, periodically shaken due to the interaction of two continental tectonic plates: the Eurasian and Indian. The Himalayan mountain range is formed and continues to grow intensely at their point of contact.
A study published in the ESS Open Archive in late 2023 revealed a surprising situation unfolding beneath the Tibetan Plateau. Typically, interacting tectonic plates follow predictable patterns: colliding, diverging, or sliding past each other. However, when two plates of similar density (both continental) interact, the tectonics become complex and less predictable.
New Analysis of Seismic Activity in the Himalayas
The 2023 research team’s discovery is striking: the Indian tectonic plate is splitting in two beneath Tibet. Scientists suggest that powerful seismic processes are linked to the specific movements of the tectonic plates:
- The Indian plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian lithospheric plate.
- The surface portion of the Indian plate is folding while its deeper part plunges into the Earth’s mantle. The Tibetan Plateau is supported by the surface portion of the Indian plate, while at a depth of approximately 33 km, particularly within the continental crust, its inner part descends into the mantle.
Horizontal tectonic shifts are known to be the most complex to analyze. This complexity creates difficulties in analyzing additional variables in the seismic activity of Tibet and its surrounding areas.
Earthquakes on the Tibetan Plateau
One of the most concerning predictions regarding the Indian plate’s tectonics is that its movement pattern increases the risk of strong earthquakes in Tibet and hinders medium-term forecasting. Considering the numerous complex faults and the immense force of tectonic tremors, scientists can only make long-term earthquake predictions based on past seismic events in the region.
The January 7, 2025 Earthquake on the Nepal-China Border
At 9:05 am local time on January 7, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck the Chinese province of Tibet, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The greatest seismic activity was observed in the Tonglai region, on the northern slope of Mount Everest. The epicenter was only 80 kilometers from the famed summit. The tremors and resulting destruction caused 126 deaths and 188 injuries. Over 400 people trapped under rubble were rescued, but the exact number of missing remains unknown. Rescuers continue to search for survivors, with chances diminishing due to temperatures dropping to -16Β°C. Over 500 aftershocks were recorded in the initial hours following the earthquake. Water and electricity are out in the region due to infrastructure damage from landslides and collapses.
The 2015 Nepal Earthquake
On April 25, a powerful 7.9 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal. The epicenter was located in a mountainous region approximately 210 kilometers west of Everest and 40 kilometers from the eight-thousander Manaslu. The resulting avalanches and rockfalls killed approximately 90 climbers, making it the deadliest tragedy in mountaineering history.
The 1950 Assam Earthquake
On August 15, 1950, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the bordering state of Assam, India, with its epicenter near Rima, Tibet. The disaster destroyed numerous buildings and killed between 1,500 and 3,000 people. Large landslides following the earthquake blocked the Subansiri River. The resulting artificial dam burst eight days later, creating a 7-meter high wave that flooded several villages and claimed an additional 23 lives.
The 1934 Nepal Earthquake
On January 15, 1934, at 8:43 am local time, an 8.2 Mw earthquake devastated Nepal and caused significant damage in neighboring India. The epicenter was located 10 km south of Mount Everest at a depth of 33 km. The earthquake resulted in approximately 20,000 deaths and severely impacted Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu, destroying over 80,000 buildings, including homes and historical structures.
Seismologists’ Predictions
By studying historical records, scientists have discovered a concerning pattern. Earthquakes originating from tectonic processes in the main Himalayan fault tend to create stress on other neighboring sections and recur with a periodicity of approximately 80 years. The major Kathmandu earthquake of 1255 led to deformation accumulation in the western segment of the fault. Eighty years later, in 1344, a catastrophic earthquake struck that area, claiming tens of thousands of lives.
The 2015 Nepal earthquake, occurring 81 years after the 1934 disaster, did not reach the magnitude required to release the accumulated seismic strain. Therefore, a mega-earthquake of magnitude 9.0 could occur in the near future along the Pokhara-Kathmandu-Bhutan fault line, impacting the entire central Himalayan region.