Despite the advancements of 17th and 18th-century scientists in natural sciences, they couldn’t find acceptable solutions to the challenges of earthquake prediction. German logician Gottfried Leibniz, for instance, believed that fires igniting in underground caverns caused earthquakes. Many scientists attributed earthquakes to underground electrical discharges, believing that developing a “seismo-extinguisher” could control them.
At the beginning of the 20th century, scientists moved closer to the truth, attributing earthquakes to movements within the Earth’s crust. Some believed the crust contracted and cracked in certain places, while others argued that the Earth was expanding, creating faults. In 1912, German geologist Alfred Wegener provided a crucial key with his theory of continental drift, proposing that continents rest on constantly moving plates.
It wasn’t until 1892 that British geologist John Milne, teaching at the Imperial College of Engineering in Tokyo, along with colleagues James Ewing and Thomas Gray, developed the first accurate seismograph. Milne established a network of measuring stations, installed globally within a year, allowing different types of earthquakes to be recorded in various regions. Accurate study and prediction of earthquakes, therefore, has only been possible for the last century. This explains the difficulties in issuing short-term earthquake predictions – seismology is a young and rapidly evolving science.
Earthquake Prediction
Despite technological advancements in recent decades, seismologists still cannot accurately predict earthquakes. This is due to a lack of data – seismologists can only observe surface movements, while the earthquake’s focal point remains hidden. Hypocenters lie tens to hundreds of kilometers deep, unreachable by current drilling technology. Therefore, models of events within the fault are based on conjecture and remain hypothetical. Even the most optimistic earthquake researchers doubt pinpoint predictions within a few hours will ever be possible.
Long-Term Forecasts
Currently, researchers can only make long-term forecasts for specific regions. The longer the interval between earthquakes of a certain magnitude in a seismically active area, the higher the probability of a new event. Geological methods help narrow down the timeframes between earthquakes, enabling a reasonably accurate estimation of recurrence intervals.
However, this approach doesn’t guarantee accurate predictions. American researchers believed they had established a precise recurrence interval for earthquakes in Parkfield, California. Using geological data, they calculated that major earthquakes had occurred there, on average, every 22 years. They predicted the next earthquake between 1988 and 1992 with a 95% probability. However, it didn’t occur until 12 years later.
Scientists also calculated the recurrence interval for devastating earthquakes in Sumatra. The 2004 earthquake and tsunami are estimated to recur every 600 years. But can we be certain that seismic and volcanic activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire won’t trigger another catastrophe sooner?
What Can Science Offer?
Even with cutting-edge technology, earthquakes cannot be prevented. We can only improve predictability, giving people in seismically active regions a chance to reach safety in time. Scientists warn, for instance, that the Turkish metropolis of Istanbul is threatened by a major earthquake in the near future. How can 16 million people prepare for such an event, and what can science do for them?
Official science acknowledges that natural phenomena like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are impossible to predict with absolute certainty. However, preparation for these events is possible, including utilizing recommendations from the “Geoquake” earthquake forecasting center for various regions around the globe. By downloading the app, users can:
- Receive forecasts of probable seismic activity and alerts for high earthquake risks:The app provides proactive information about potential seismic events, giving users advance warning of heightened risk.
- Access continuously updated data on risks for residents and businesses in earthquake-prone zones:Dynamic risk assessments provide up-to-the-minute information specific to the user’s location, enabling informed decision-making.
- Obtain information on proper conduct during earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions:Educational resources within the app guide users on best practices for safety and survival during these events.
- Follow Geoquake and government agency warnings when planning trips to hazardous regions:Integrating official warnings into travel planning helps users avoid unnecessary risks and make informed choices about their itineraries.
If travel to a high-risk area is unavoidable or if you reside in a zone of potential seismic hazard, advance preparation is crucial. Familiarize yourself with the appropriate course of action during strong tremors. Knowing the evacuation plan and preparing an emergency kit are highly recommended.