In the coming months, the Aegean coastline of Turkey — including Marmaris, Izmir, and Bodrum — faces an increased risk of a major earthquake. This is based on data from the GeoQuake app, which utilizes the Seismic Entropy Method (SEM) — a scientific tool for forecasting tectonic activity through complex analysis of seismic patterns.
According to GeoQuake estimates, an earthquake with a magnitude of around 7.0 is possible between May and July 2025.
What is the Seismic Entropy Method?
SEM evaluates both current and accumulated seismic stress in the Earth’s crust. GeoQuake has identified:
- a seismic swarm between January 25 and February 6, 2025;
- an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 in the Aegean Sea on March 13, 2025;
- continued geodynamic pressure along the Aegean arc.
These factors indicate the likelihood of a significant seismic event.
Risk Zones
The areas under threat include:
- Turkish coastal and tourist cities: Marmaris, Bodrum, Fethiye, Izmir
- Greek islands: Rhodes, Crete, Karpathos
Due to tectonic plate boundaries, the region is also at risk of an underwater earthquake and possible tsunami, threatening port infrastructure and tourism.
Possible Consequences:
- destruction of residential and hotel infrastructure
- disruption of water and power supplies
- damage to transportation and port systems
- interruption of interregional communication
- threats to tourists and residents
GeoQuake Safety Recommendations:
- Install GeoQuake and enable location and notifications
- Prepare an emergency kit: ID, water, first aid, communication tools
- Learn evacuation routes and safe zones
- Avoid coastal areas and densely built zones during tremors
- Follow real-time updates in the GeoQuake app
Conclusion
Western Turkey remains one of the most seismically active regions in the Eastern Mediterranean. The forecast based on GeoQuake data requires increased awareness.
The Seismic Entropy Method helps detect early warning signs and gives people time to prepare.
Information and preparation are key to safe