
Predicting earthquakes with high precision remains an elusive goal for seismologists. While we cannot definitively say whether a major earthquake will occur in 2025, we can analyze seismic activity, geological data, and statistical probabilities to identify potential risk zones. To forecast earthquakes for the upcoming year, we aim to avoid sensationalism and present a balanced perspective based on established scientific understanding.
Not Predictions, but Probabilistic Assessments of Earthquakes
Predicting earthquakes is much more complex than forecasting the weather (in terms of process dynamics and statistics). Earthquakes are caused by the intricate interaction of tectonic plates, fault lines, and the accumulation of stress in the Earth’s crust. This is a complex set of dynamic changes, and scientists are continually improving prediction models, making the exact timing of an earthquake still unpredictable.
Instead of predicting specific earthquakes, seismologists focus on generating probabilistic assessments. To achieve this, they:
- Analyze historical earthquake data and correlate it with seismic cycles.
- Examine geological fault lines and current stress levels to evaluate the likelihood of earthquakes of various magnitudes occurring in a region within specific time frames.
These assessments provide a measure of probability, not certainty. For example, scientists might conclude that there is a 30% chance of an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 or higher occurring in California within the next ten years. This does not mean there is a 30% chance it will happen specifically in 2025, but rather reflects the overall seismic risk in the region over the indicated period.
Regions with the Highest Seismic Risk in 2025
Several regions are known for their high seismic activity and potential for significant earthquakes, which could occur as soon as next year. The Pacific Ring of Fire, encompassing areas such as Japan, California, and parts of South America, is particularly vulnerable. For instance, the San Andreas Fault in California is a major source of concern. All research published in scientific sources indicates the significant seismic potential of this fault.
Which regions of the Earth will maintain the highest likelihood of a major earthquake in 2025? Let’s examine the most seismically active zones:
British Columbia
Earthquakes on the west coast of Canada, especially in its northern part, fall into the “mega-thrust” category and are known for their significant magnitude, reaching up to 9.0. Major earthquakes occur here along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate meets the North American plate. Researchers are aware of the impending “Big One,” though they cannot predict when the tension in the fault will cause a sudden jolt, they can provide assessments based on this possibility.
The probability of earthquakes off the coast of British Columbia in the next 50 years ranges from 10 to 15 percent and will only increase over time. During this period, a mega-earthquake with a magnitude of 9+ could occur, similar to past events in the history of Canada’s west coast.
The last 9.0 magnitude earthquake in this zone occurred on January 26, 1700. This seismic event caused massive destruction along the coast, and on the western part of Vancouver Island, a tsunami completely wiped out the winter village of the Pachena Bay people, leaving no survivors. The tsunami traveled across the entire Pacific Ocean, reaching Japan, where record-keeping allowed for the precise date of the disaster to be known. The earthquake also left geological traces similar to 12 other mega-thrusts that have occurred in the past 6,000 years.
California
On December 5, 2024, a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 was recorded off the coast of California, near the famous San Andreas Fault. In most cases, the main earthquake is accompanied by a series of aftershocks, but the northern part of California is an area where three lithospheric plates meet (the Mendocino Triple Junction). The complex fault lines and unique plate movements can produce powerful foreshocks with magnitudes of 7.0 and above. These can either result from individual plate shifts or signal an impending, even stronger earthquake. For instance, on January 9, 1857, after a series of significant tremors, California experienced an even more serious seismic event.
Previously, it was believed that each earthquake was an isolated event, but data analysis, which has been actively collected since early 1992, suggests otherwise. Each major earthquake in California is preceded by tremors resulting from the formation of new faults. Scientists note that the tendency for such earthquakes is currently increasing. Seismic activity in the San Andreas subduction zone has been on the rise in recent years.
Turkey
Seismologists in Turkey are expecting a powerful earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7.5 to occur soon in Istanbul and the Marmara region. According to the analysis of geophysical and seismic research, as well as the study of historical data, there is a 50% probability of a seismic event occurring within the next five years.
Seismologists predict that the earthquake could affect seven provinces, home to over 25 million people. The Turkish economy would suffer significant damage given that Istanbul contributes 35% to the country’s GDP. The statement by Turkish seismologists is not an attempt to incite panic but a reminder to the authorities and residents of the capital to take preemptive measures to reduce material damage and prevent human casualties from the impending earthquake.
Kazakhstan
For the capital of Kazakhstan, Almaty, scientists have raised the seismic activity level to high for the year 2025 and predict a high probability of a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 12 in the near future. Previously, the epicenter of a tremor had a magnitude of 6. 4 Ballov was located 34 km from the capital, which is built over five complex fault lines. Seismologists claim that a new, more powerful, and destructive earthquake will occur in southern Kazakhstan in the near future.