Since 2005, leading geophysicists have known that the African tectonic plate is separating from the Somali plate along the Great East African Rift. This geological fault extends from the Red Sea to the Zambezi River, forming a rift over 6,000 km long and 40-60 km wide. Geologists predict that in 50 million years, four countries of the Horn of Africa (Somalia, half of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) will separate from the mainland, forming a new continent and ocean.
In 2005, a massive crack 60 km long and about 5 m wide formed in the Earth’s crust north of Afar, located on the southern border of Ethiopia and Eritrea. The depth of the surface rupture ranges from 2 to 15 km and marks the beginning of a new ocean formation in this part of the world. The creation of the rift was accompanied by a series of powerful earthquakes and eruptions of the Dabbahu volcano, which stands at 1,442 meters. Over the past decade, about ten other complex fissures have opened in the southern part of the rift.
In recent years, a new vulnerability has been discovered in Kenya, indicating that processes in the African Rift zone are accelerating. Locals report sudden cracks appearing in the ground, cutting through their homes, roads, and railway lines, prompting many to relocate from the dangerous zone. Social instability in the region prevents thorough research in this new seismically hazardous region of Africa. Scientists believe that tectonic processes will lead to the formation of a new ocean floor in 1 million years. However, less optimistic residents fear that a seismic catastrophe will occur much sooner than predicted.
Africa – Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity in 2025
At the beginning of 2025, on January 4, 7, 8, and 9, a series of moderate earthquakes, with magnitudes up to 5.8 Mw, struck Ethiopia. The increasing frequency and intensity of these seismic events led to the mass evacuation of residents from rural areas of Afar, Oromia, and Amhara. The tremors damaged many homes and raised concerns about a possible eruption of the Dofan volcano, located near the town of Segento in the northeast Afar region.
Faced with this emergency, Ethiopian authorities dispatched teams to assess the damage and provide assistance to the affected population. Thousands of people were moved to temporary shelters. The Ethiopian National Disaster Risk Management Commission reported that about 20,570 people had already been evacuated, and plans were underway to relocate another 60,000 residents from the potentially dangerous zone. The tremors and eruptions are caused by the divergence of tectonic plates beneath the Great African Rift, making Ethiopia one of the most seismically active regions in the world in recent years.
Should Africa Worry About Strong Earthquakes?
Despite the high stability of the African tectonic plate, composed primarily of layers of old sedimentary rock, the processes occurring in the East African Rift are causing debate among scientists not only about the predictability of earthquakes but also about their destructive potential. According to a joint study by UNESCO and the World Commission on Geological Mapping conducted in 2015, several fault lines in Africa pose a high earthquake risk:
- West Africa, the region from Nigeria to Senegal – considered the least prone to earthquakes. In December 1983, a 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck, killing about 300 people.
- Northwest Africa, the zone extending from Tunisia to Algeria and Mauritania. A powerful 7.2 magnitude earthquake in 1980 resulted from active processes between the tectonic structures of Africa and Eurasia.
- Libya and Egypt- earthquakes occur due to seismic activity in the Africa-Eurasia faults, as well as between the diverging plates of the Red Sea.
- Central Africa- located on faults that cross the volcanoes of Cameroon, Angola, Chad, and the Congo Basin, where earthquakes of varying magnitudes occur regularly.
- Southern Africa, the seismically hazardous zone includes Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa.
The stability of the African tectonic plate allows for relatively accurate medium-term forecasts and doesn’t anticipate earthquakes exceeding 7.0 on the Richter scale. However, if the processes occurring in the East African Rift destabilize the most dangerous volcanoes (Nyiragongo, Virunga), the consequences could be severe not only for the continent but for the entire world.
The processes in the East African Rift have already awakened Mount Kilimanjaro, a stratovolcano dormant for the last 100,000 years, an eruption of which humanity has never witnessed. Scientists believe that the awakening of Kilimanjaro could lead to the destruction of African tropics and damage the Earth’s ozone layer. Such an eruption could be comparable in magnitude to the Toba supervolcano catastrophe 75,000 years ago, which reduced the human population to a few thousand individuals.