Ang aming pamamaraan ay nagbibigay-daan sa paghula ng aktibidad ng lindol na may tiyak na antas ng panganib, kabilang ang pag-asa sa mga paunang senyales ng lindol (maliliit na pagyanig).
Kapag mas malapit ang inaasahang lindol, mas tumpak naming matutukoy ang panganib nito.
On the night of February 5-6, 2023, a strong earthquake with destructive consequences devastated southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria. The seismic activity of magnitude 7.8 on the Richter scale was so strong that tremors were felt throughout the Middle East, especially in Lebanon and Cyprus. A series of first tremors with an epicenter near Gaziantep in southeastern Turkey was followed by a second earthquake of magnitude 7.5 (at 13:24 local time).
Although seismic hazard maps showed strong ground motions in the event of a large magnitude earthquake, the powerful aftershock was very unexpected by seismologists. As a result of two consecutive earthquakes in Turkey, according to the Ministry of Interior Affairs, more than 44,000 people lost their lives. Millions of people were left homeless in the midst of winter- approximately 173,000 buildings were severely damaged or completely destroyed. The catastrophic earthquake was a signal indicating difficulties, heeding warnings from national and international experts. Conclusions were also drawn about the need to control urban planning and construct earthquake-resistant buildings in high-risk seismic zones.
At 2:41 a.m. (local time), a powerful earthquake with a magnitude 7.3 on the Richter Scale hit China's Qinghai. A few hours earlier, a 6.1 magnitude tremor occurred in the sparsely populated Yunnan province of Tibet, leading to several fatalities, over a hundred injuries and the evacuation of 20,000 local residents to safe regions. A more powerful earthquake in densely populated Qinghai, followed by two aftershocks of magnitude 4.9, caused the loss of 160 lives. More than 500 people were injured and tens of thousands were left homeless. The region is considered highly vulnerable to earthquakes due to the collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, which form the extensive Himalayan Mountain range.
An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1 on the Richter scale struck in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, bordering Kyrgyzstan at 2 a.m. (local time). The epicenter was located 140 km from Aksu, at a depth of 27 km. Shortly after the first tremor, three powerful aftershocks measuring 5.5, 5.1, and 5.0 were recorded. The earthquake was felt in various regions of Xinjiang, including the administrative center Urumqi and major cities like Hotan and Kashgar. The tremors were noticeable throughout Central Asia and India, and caused panic among residents of Astana and Bishkek. The Ministry of Health of Kazakhstan reported that 44 people with various injuries of mild and moderate severity sought medical assistance in Almaty. In the immediate vicinity of the epicenter, approximately 50 houses were destroyed, 78 were partially damaged. Several dozen injured people sought help.
The events of January 23, 2024 in Xinjiang province indicate that not only Chinese municipal authorities, but also the governments of other countries did not implement earthquake early warning systems. Emergency alerting the population on their phones via messages could reduce the number of casualties and minimize panic among residents of high-rise buildings.
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Ang pamamaraang nakapaloob sa teknolohiyang pangkompyuter ay batay sa pagpapakilala ng mga bagong pisikal na parameter na kinakalkula mula sa estadistikang sismiko. Ito ay nakabatay rin sa konsepto ng isang sistemang sismiko, kung saan binuo ang bagong batas—ang batas ng produksyon ng entropy (S. Ts. Akopian, 1995-2015). Ang pagsusuri sa nakaraan ay nagpapakita na 96% ng 750 malalakas na lindol sa kasaysayan ay sumusunod sa bagong batas.
Ang mga bagong pattern ay nagpapahintulot na subaybayan ang pag-unlad ng kawalang-tatag ng seismic sa oras at espasyo, hulaan ang lokasyon, oras, at lakas ng lindol, bawasan ang panganib ng lindol sa 97% ng kabuuang oras ng paghahanda, suriin ang mga potensyal na sitwasyong sismiko, kontrolin ang dulot at pinasiglang seismicity, bumuo ng mga bagong dynamic na mapa ng panganib sa seismic at magbigay ng impormasyon tungkol sa proseso ng paghahanda para sa malalakas na lindol, tsunami, at posibleng kahihinatnan.
Angkop para sa online monitoring at paghula hindi lamang ng lindol kundi pati na rin ng tsunami.
Nagbibigay-daan sa paglikha ng mga dynamic na mapa ng panganib sa seismic.
Pinapayagan nitong mailarawan ang proseso ng paghahanda ng malalakas na lindol.
