Place: Press Association of Madrid, Calle de Juan Bravo, 6, 28006 Madrid, Spain
A new strategy for earthquakes prediction
Transition from the primitive level to the modern civilization.
On the subject of earthquake prediction, we are currently at a primitive level, as earthquakes happen suddenly, taking us by surprise! We do not "see" the approaching danger, and from time to time we only see the result of their catastrophic impact. The method of seismic entropy provides a huge jump in the field of earthquake prediction, allowing to visualise the process of preparation for a strong earthquake in any region of
the world, as well as to create a computer intelligence for a short-term forecast – this is a crucial move from the primitive level to the modern civilization,
protected from earthquakes and tsunamis.
As this method is universal, it already allows to create a global system for automatic seismic weather forecast. For well-known seismic systems, such as Italy, Japan, California, etc., it is possible to make a reliable short-term forecast, forecast, depending on the specific preparation stage of an earthquake. For example, it was possible in principle to make a short-term prediction for the earthquakes occurred on December 22, 2003 (San Simeon), September 28, 2004 (Parkfield) in Central California; recent earthquakes on March 11, 2011 (Tohoku) in Japan; 23 October, 2011 (Van) in Eastern Turkey; 15 April, 2016 (Kumamoto, Kyushu) Japan; 30 October, 2016 (Norcia) in Central Italy, which all led to destruction and casualties. However, practically this was only possible if this technology was already adopted by seismologists and the government agencies.
The practical application of the seismic entropy method aimed at reducing the seismic risk requires a redevelopment of the forecast concept, warnings and actions involved. Considering the results of our research, it becomes clear that many traditional views on the forecast, methods for seismic hazard mapping, prevention and reduction of damage from an earthquake must be reevaluated. However, this does not contradict everything that scientists have gained in the field of earthquake prediction and seismic risk reduction, but, on the contrary, allows to combine these efforts and significantly increase their efficiency. The technology allows to develop preliminary measures and reduce seismic risk based on monitoring of seismic entropy at different stages of the earthquake preparation. This is crucial for effective funding allocation and specific preparation for strong earthquakes..
During the years 2000-2018 about 837531 people died from earthquakes worldwide, which is an average of 44081 people per year. Material damage from earthquakes amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Earthquake prediction programs in developed countries have been compiled for the next 20-30 years, not guaranteeing any practical results. During 30 years, about 1,300,000 people will die from earthquakes and tsunamis, not to mention the injured and material losses.
The main goal of the UNISDR program by 2030 is to significantly reduce the mortality and injury rates, as well as the economic losses globally.
We have already identified the most dangerous zones where in the next 2-3 years catastrophic earthquakes with human casualties will occur. Monitoring of these zones must be prioritised urgently. Our Group of companies (including the International Center for Global Monitoring and Forecasting of Seismic Weather) is ready to provide updates about seismic weather and upcoming earthquakes for a particular region of the world, similar to the traditional weather forecast systems. This will enable anyone to receive relevant information and make their own decision.