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MONITORING

Global monitoring results

The method of seismic entropy is based on the concept of Seismic System, which are identified in seismic regions from the position of plate tectonics (shaded areas in Fig. 1).

Global monitoring results
Fig. 1. World Map of of tectonic plates (USGS)
World Map of of tectonic plates
Fig. 1 legend:

Divergent plate boundary-where new crust is generated as the plates pull away from each other (Type A)

Convergent plate boundary (Types B, D)

Transform plate boundary (Type C)

Former plate boundaries, now inactiveDiffuse boundary zone – broad belt where deformation occurs and origin of the microplates (Types A, B, C, D)

Selected Hotspots

Plate motion

96% of earthquakes on Earth

occur under compression conditions in the zones of interaction between the lithospheric plates (90% belong to the Pacific Plate and 6% to the Mediterranean-Alpine-Himalayan belt).

In spreading zones during stretching, less than 1% of the earth's seismic energy is released.

Accumulated experience and validation
A

Сброс

Normal Fault

B

Надвиг-Подвиг

Thrust Fault

C

Сдвиг

Strick-Slip Transform Fault

D

Сбросо-сдвиг

Strick-Slip-Normal Fault

Fig. 2. Main types A, B, C, D of the plate boundaries and the corresponding focal mechanisms of earthquake focus points.
Seismically dangerous regions on the world map, where more than 300 SS of the upper energy level were identified and are currently (2019) being monitored for earthquake forecasting.

Global seismic hazard map

Global seismic hazard map

Fig. 3. Regions of the world where seismic systems were identified

(numbering corresponds to the history of identification of the SS)

.1- California; 2- Gorda Plate; 3- Italy; 4- Armenian Upland, Caucasus, Caspian Sea and Northern Iran; 5- Sakhalin, Hokkaido, Kuril and Kamchatka; 6- Southern Iran; 7- Japan; 8- Burma microplate; 9- Taiwan; 10- Azores, Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Algeria; 11- Sumatra; 12- Java; 13- Mozambique; 14- Koryak; 15- Crimea, Krasnodar, 16- Pakistan, Afganistan, 17- India, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, 18- Myanmar (Burma), China (South), 19- China (NE), 20- Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, 21- Central USA (Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana), 22- Vrancea (Romania), 23- Haiti, Dominican Rep., Cuba (South), Jamaica (East), 24- Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania, D.R.Congo, Burundi, 25- Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, 26- Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, 27- Baja California (NW Mexico), 28- Belize, Guatemala (East), Honduras (North), Cayman Islands, Cuba (SW), Jamaica (West), 29- Peru, Ecuador (South), Brazil (West), 30- Mexico (central), 31-Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, South Kazakhstan, NW China, 32- Altai, Tuva (RF), W Mongolia, NW China, E Kazakhstan, 33- Baykal area (RF), 34- Amursk (RF), 35- Turkey, Greece, Balkans.

Monitoring in 2019 includes and affects the territories of 80 countries

We are constantly working towards increasing the scope and detail of monitoring

  1. Europe (20 countries)

    Austria, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bulgaria, Greece, Georgia, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Moldova, Portugal, Russia, Romania, San Marino, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Croatia, Switzerland.

  2. Asia (31 countries)

    Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Israel, Indonesia, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, DPR Korea, South Korea, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Syria, Tajikistan, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Japan.

  3. Africa (10 countries)

    Algeria, Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Zambia, Malawi, Morocco, Mozambique, Tanzania, Tunisia.

  4. North America (13 countries)

    Belize, Virgin Islands, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras, Dominican Republic, Cayman Islands, Canada, Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, USA, Jamaica.

  5. South America (6 countries)

    Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Ecuador.

Monitoring In 2019 Includes And Affects The Territories Of 80 Countries

Products

We cooperate with public and private companies. Cutting-edge technologies are embodied into our products.
Computer systems for global monitoring
Specialized computer programs
Commercial information in the form of newsletters, advertising, animation
Commercial software for the industry

To make the most use of the available software products customers will be educated to use the program independently and update the input data from the Internet, while we will be duplicating the monitoring on our side as well. We will provide input data updates quarterly to ensure we are in sync.

Existing customers will be able to obtain new and improved versions of our software at a discount.

Accuracy of the computer technology forecasts

Forecast using the method of seismic entropy is produced based on the the pre-specified conditions
  1. The earthquake prediction accuracy from 6 months to 1 week, depending on the specific situation;
  2. The magnitude accuracy of the forecast of +-0,1; large deviations in magnitude are discussed separately;
  3. The accuracy of the earthquake's predicted place on the Earth's surface and depth of focus is limited by the size of the SS and can reach the depth of the predicted earthquake;
  4. If a strongly anticipated earthquake zone is indicated within the SS, then the possibility of a strong earthquake occurring in other places within the SS is automatically excluded, meaning the entire volume of SS is controlled;
  5. Depending on the development of the seismic situation, the results of the forecast may change and be refined over time;
  6. Instability (predicted earthquake location) can migrate within the SS from one fault zone to another, the predicted time of earthquake can get delayed or expedited and, accordingly, the magnitude of the expected earthquake can change (all of these details are incorporated in the method);
  7. SS elements in a limited time interval (from 1 to 6 months) can be in an unstable state, and if during this time a strong earthquake does not occur, the system will return to a stable state;

The reliability of SS forecasts are divided into four levels

After each strong earthquake, the forecast quality improves and over time all SS will be moved to the first level of reliability
I level (reliable)
the number of completed seismic cycles ≥ 15;
II level (good)
the number of completed seismic cycles ≥ 10;
III level (mediocre)
the number of completed seismic cycles ≥ 5;
IV level (bad)
the number of completed seismic cycles from 2 to 5.