TECHNOLOGY
How does the forecasting technology work?
The basis of the technology is the introduction of new parameters, the law of seismic entropy production and a specialized SPQ-LMTP software products suite
The method underlying this Computer technology (CT) is based: on the introduction of new physical parameters calculated on the basis of seismic statistics; on the concept of a seismic system (SS), in which a new law – the law of seismic entropy production is formulated (Akopian S.Ts., 1995-2015). A retrospective analysis shows that 96% of 750 historical strong earthquakes obey the new law.
New identified patterns allow to monitor the development of seismic instability in time and space; to predict the place, time and strength; to exclude earthquakes by 97% from the total preparation time; to monitor and evaluate possible seismic scenarios; to control the triggering and man-made seismicity; to calculate and introduce dynamic maps of seismic hazards; to inform about the incoming of strong earthquakes, tsunamis along with possible consequences.
New identified patterns allow to monitor the development of seismic instability in time and space; to predict the place, time and strength; to exclude earthquakes by 97% from the total preparation time; to monitor and evaluate possible seismic scenarios; to control the triggering and man-made seismicity; to calculate and introduce dynamic maps of seismic hazards; to inform about the incoming of strong earthquakes, tsunamis along with possible consequences.
According to the results of a competitive selection conducted by the State Corporation of Rosatom on December 13, 2017, "Computer technology for predicting the expected seismic impact and creation of dynamic seismic hazard maps to assist with the design and location of nuclear power plants" was included in the Register of Innovative Solutions, Technologies, Products, High-tech services in the field of capital construction of facilities using atomic energy (see Rosatom certificate No. 002 2017).
Advantages of the method
The method and operation of the CT
- does not require the creation of new monitoring networks;
- the monitoring parameters are stable and reliable, a lot of information to calculate them is already accumulated worldwide;
- allows to monitor both land and seabed during all stages of earthquake preparation;
- the monitoring parameters are calculated (On-Line) based on data from global and local seismological networks;
- allows to increase the efficiency of existing methods of earthquake prediction;
- allows to visualize the staging process of strong earthquakes;
- allows to control induced seismicity;
- allows to improve the accuracy of forecasts over time by using machine learning and AI.
- allows to create dynamic maps of seismic hazards and improve the construction standards;
Accumulated experience and validation
In On-Line mode on the website www.geoq.ru from 2008 to 2012, 18 earthquakes were predicted. On the basis of new developments, more than 300 seismic systems of the upper energy level located in more than 78 countries of the world have been identified by 2019. CT has been developed and tested for the past 30 years. Numerous preliminary earthquake forecasts have been done since 1988, including the ones in California, China, Iran, Turkey, and Japan.
In the field of nuclear and renewable energy
CT is universal and used to predict potential seismic hazards for nuclear power plants (NPP) and locations with major power and communications facilities
- for On-Line monitoring, earthquake and tsunami forecasting, for visualizing the seismic situation around already operating and projected NPPs of the world;
- CT allows to create dynamic seismic hazard map for both operating and projected NPPs; to introduce a dynamic passport for calculation of seismic loads on NPP, fuel and energy facilities and communications.
- for On-Line monitoring and forecasting the occurrence of dangerous natural and man-made changes to fuel and energy facilities and communications;