How does the Forecasting Technology work?
The basis of the technology is the introduction of new parameters, the law of seismic entropy production and a specialized SPQ-LMTP software products suite
The basis of the technology is the introduction of new parameters, the law of seismic entropy production and a specialized SPQ-LMTP software products suite
The method underlying this Computer technology (CT) is based: on the introduction of new physical parameters calculated on the basis of seismic statistics; on the concept of a seismic system (SS), in which a new law – the law of seismic entropy production is formulated (Akopian S.Ts., 1995-2015). A retrospective analysis shows that 96% of 750 historical strong earthquakes obey the new law.
New identified patterns allow to monitor the development of seismic instability in time and space; to predict the place, time and strength; to exclude earthquakes by 97% from the total preparation time; to monitor and evaluate possible seismic scenarios; to control the triggering and man-made seismicity; to calculate and introduce dynamic maps of seismic hazards; to inform about the incoming of strong earthquakes, tsunamis along with possible consequences.
According to the results of a competitive selection conducted by the State Corporation of Rosatom on December 13, 2017, "Computer technology for predicting the expected seismic impact and creation of dynamic seismic hazard maps to assist with the design and location of nuclear power plants" was included in the Register of Innovative Solutions, Technologies, Products, High-tech services in the field of capital construction of facilities using atomic energy (see Rosatom certificate No. 002 2017).
In On-Line mode on the website www.geoq.ru from 2008 to 2012, 18 earthquakes were predicted. On the basis of new developments, more than 300 seismic systems of the upper energy level located in more than 78 countries of the world have been identified by 2019. CT has been developed and tested for the past 30 years. Numerous preliminary earthquake forecasts have been done since 1988, including the ones in California, China, Iran, Turkey, and Japan.
CT is universal and used to predict potential seismic hazards for nuclear power plants (NPP) and locations with major power and communications facilities