On February 6, 2023, two destructive earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.6 hit southeastern Turkey. These were the most devastating earthquakes in the country’s history.
As reported by Italian scientists, this event led to the formation of a new fault and the shift of the Earth’s lithospheric plates. What happened in Turkey in terms of science and what seismic events can be expected in the near future in an active tectonic fault zone 150 km long and 3 m wide?
According to Samvel Akopian, the Director of the GeoQuake’s scientific department, the cause of earthquakes in Turkey is due to the nature of the Arabian Plate movement.
Features of tectonics in Turkey
The Arabian Plate, one of the oldest and most stable tectonic structures, is moving towards the Caucasus Mountains at a rate of 2.5 cm per year and simultaneously rotating around a center located in northern Libya in Africa. The Anatolian Sub-Plate, on which most of Turkey is located, is drifting in a southeasterly direction due to the movement of the Arabian Plate.
The movement of the Arabian Plate is relatively uniform, except in the area where it meets the equally ancient and dense Eurasian Plate. Thus, the Arabian Plate continues to move, but it remains stationary in the area of the East Anatolian Fault, leading to the gradual accumulation of elastic strain stresses.
The last case of seismic activity in this region was observed more than 200 years ago (1822). Therefore, the energy accumulated over this period and released during the 2023 earthquake caused the Arabian Plate to shift by 3 meters. Scientists claim that Turkey moved 3 meters closer to Syria as a result of this event.
Consequences of the tectonic shift
There is unlikely to be seismic activity in the near future on the western part of the Anatolian subplate, as the earthquake has released the stress that had accumulated there. The shift of the Arabian Plate has begun to exert stress on northern Iran, which in turn is putting pressure on the entire Caucasus region. Therefore, the next strong earthquake with a magnitude of more than 7.0 may occur in northwestern Iran (the border region with Turkey).
Can scientists learn how to predict the exact parameters of an earthquake
To be able to predict an earthquake, scientists need to determine its parameters:
- the exact time of the seismic event;
- the earthquake epicenter;
- the amount of energy that will be released during seismic activity (magnitude).
All parameters are equivalent, and the absence of even one of them does not make it possible to make an accurate forecast.
According to Samvel Akopian, new technology has been developed that allows making fairly accurate forecasts about the location, time and magnitude of the expected earthquake.
Its practical use is limited by the lack of an effective warning system. Existing international warning rules do not allow reporting an earthquake to a country where a seismic event is expected. The technology on which the forecast is made has not yet been officially accepted by the international community of seismologists.